Thursday, August 13, 2015

NASCAR Pure Michigan 400 – Early Picks & Projections



This week, we’re on the road to Brooklyn, Michigan for the Pure Michigan 400, a 200 lap 400 mile race on a two mile intermediate track.  We’re back on a D shaped track after last week’s trip to Watkins Glen.

Please note all my salary information comes from DraftKings, and if you don’t have an account, sign up here

My Favorites

·        Kevin Harvick ($10,600) – Harvick had a strong showing last week finishing with the 4th highest fantasy points on DraftKings.  Harvick is a lot stronger on intermediate tracks than on road courses and he has the higher driver rating on tour so you can count on him this weekend.

·        Joey Logano ($9,600) – Joey has been on a tear lately, after posting a win and the highest fantasy score last week at Watkins Glen.  What’s better about him this weekend is that he performs 13% better than his average at Michigan.  With an affordable price tag, you need him in your lineup.

·        Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – Brad is another great driver who has posted over 50 fantasy points over his last 5 races.  What’s more to like about him on this track is that he’s the third best driver at this track and has a lower price point.  “Have it your way” and pick BK.

·        Paul Menard ($7,800) – Paul posted a strong showing at Watkins Glen last week and I’m still kicking myself for not having him in my lineup.  He’s a much stronger driver on intermediate courses than on road courses.  For this price tag, you can’t afford not to have him in your lineup.
 


My Dislikes

·        Martin Truex Jr ($9,600) – Truex isn’t up to his usual self at Michigan, posting a 75.4 driver rating compared to his 92 average.  Given his sixth highest price tag, you can find better value in Logano and Keselowski.

·        Denny Hamlin ($8,400) – Similar to Martin Truex Jr, Denny performs much worse than his average at Michigan.  He has been good of late, but I think you can find better value this week.

The Full Driver Rating Stats since February, 2013 courtesy of www.driveraverages.com

Driver
Michigan Races
Michigan Driver Rating
Last 36 Driver Rating
Outperform?
Kevin Harvick
5
119
120.3
99%
Joey Logano
5
118.6
105.4
113%
Brad Keselowski
5
106.8
103
104%
Dale Earnhardt Jr
5
104.5
97.6
107%
Kurt Busch
5
96.1
100.2
96%
Paul Menard
5
96
79.5
121%
Kasey Kahne
5
93.7
84.8
110%
Jimmie Johnson
5
91.4
99.4
92%
Matt Kenseth
5
90.8
94.6
96%
Jeff Gordon
5
89.1
99
90%
Carl Edwards
5
88.2
87.5
101%
Greg Biffle
5
87.7
70.2
125%
Clint Bowyer
5
85.2
77.5
110%
Tony Stewart
3
84.5
70.5
120%
Ryan Newman
5
81.4
84.4
96%
Jamie McMurray
5
80.9
88.5
91%
Kyle Larson
3
77.4
88.7
87%
Austin Dillon
5
76.4
70.6
108%
Martin Truex Jr
5
75.4
92
82%
Aric Almirola
5
72
70.3
102%
Denny Hamlin
5
71.7
93.2
77%
Kyle Busch
5
70.3
93.4
75%
AJ Allmendinger
4
65.8
69.8
94%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
5
65.2
62.2
105%
Danica Patrick
5
64.5
65.4
99%
Trevor Bayne
5
61.6
54.7
113%
Casey Mears
5
61.5
61.9
99%
Justin Allgaier
3
56.3
57.8
97%
David Gilliland
5
51.3
47.5
108%
David Ragan
5
50.8
60.1
85%
Cole Whitt
3
45.9
46.3
99%
Michael Annett
3
43.6
45.7
95%
Landon Cassill
4
42.5
49.4
86%
Travis Kvapil
4
41.6
38
109%
Josh Wise
5
38.9
38.7
101%
Alex Bowman
3
37.1
42.7
87%
J.J. Yeley
5
35
35.2
99%

                                                                                                                                                                         
Good luck & ABI,

Rob

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