Saturday, August 8, 2015

NASCAR Cheez It 355 Post #2 – Post Qualifying Projections & Lineup



After looking at qualifying for tomorrow’s NASCAR Cheez It 355 at Watkins Glen, here are some thoughts and projections.

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·        Kevin Harvick ($10,000) – Harvick vastly underperforms his usual self on road courses (see NASCAR Cheez It 355 Post #1).  However, he’s so good on average and he ran well in qualifying (he starts 4th), that he overcomes that and is projected to have the highest score at Watkins Glen tomorrow.
·        Martin Truex Jr ($8,800) & Jimmie Johnson ($8,900) – Martin & Jimmie project to have the 4th and 5th highest scores tomorrow.  With them both under $9,000, they are slam dunks in any lineup.
·        AJ Allmendinger ($10,200) – AJ is a lot better on road courses than on average.  He’s starting at the front for the Cheez it 355 tomorrow and is a good option to place highly.  He’s expensive though so if you can afford him, go for it. 


Optimal Lineup
Name
Salary
Kevin Harvick
$10,000
Martin Truex Jr
$8,800
Jimmie Johnson
$8,900
Dale Earnhardt Jr
$8,200
Clint Bowyer
$8,300
Cole Whitt
$5,600
 


Full Projections
Name
Salary
Projected Points
Kevin Harvick
$10,000
57.4
Kurt Busch
$10,400
51.3
AJ Allmendinger
$10,200
49.1
Martin Truex Jr
$8,800
48.4
Jimmie Johnson
$8,900
46.7
Kyle Busch
$10,500
43.7
Dale Earnhardt Jr
$8,200
43.4
Clint Bowyer
$8,300
36.9
Brad Keselowski
$9,900
31.6
Boris Said
$6,400
28.7
Jeff Gordon
$8,700
27.4
Jamie McMurray
$7,900
26.6
Joey Logano
$9,600
26.6
Aric Almirola
$6,800
24.4
Denny Hamlin
$7,600
23.2
Ryan Newman
$7,500
23.0
Matt Kenseth
$8,100
22.4
Cole Whitt
$5,600
20.3
Greg Biffle
$7,400
20.2
Matt DiBenedetto
$5,600
20.2
Kasey Kahne
$8,000
19.6
Sam Hornish Jr
$7,800
19.1
Chris Buescher
$5,600
19.1
Carl Edwards
$9,200
18.7
Casey Mears
$6,700
18.2
Tony Stewart
$8,800
18.1
Paul Menard
$7,300
17.5
Alex Kennedy
$5,600
16.8
David Gilliland
$6,000
16.2
Kyle Larson
$7,500
15.1
Justin Allgaier
$6,600
14.9
Danica Patrick
$6,600
13.7
Austin Dillon
$6,600
13.5
Trevor Bayne
$6,100
13.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
$6,500
11.4
Alex Bowman
$5,700
10.4
J.J. Yeley
$5,700
10.2
Timmy Hill
$5,600
9.5
Landon Cassill
$5,900
8.2
Michael Annett
$5,800
6.0
Jeb Burton
$5,700
4.9
Michael McDowell
$5,600
4.3
David Ragan
$6,200
1.6

You’re in for a high variance race tomorrow.  Good luck and ABI,
Rob

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