PGA BMW Championships – Post #1 Picks

We’re heading to Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois for the 3^rd round of the PGA Tour FedEx Cup Championships, or the BMW Championships.  This course features 4 Par 3 holes and 3 Par 5 holes all close to 600 yards.

Please note the salary information comes from DraftKings, if you don’t have an account, sign up here and get a free Millionaire Maker ticket worth $20. 

In addition, the betting odds used to make the projections come from Paddy Power while the golf statistics come from the PGA Tour website (www.pgatour.com).

My Favorites

·         Jason Day ($12,600) – Day comes with the highest price tag this weekend after winning the Barclays and the PGA Championships.  He’s the betting favorite this weekend and he has 3 wins out of his last 5 tournaments.  The only downside to Day is that he may be held by a large percentage of the field.  Be cautious of him in GPPs.

·         Jordan Spieth ($11,600) – Spieth is coming off 2 disastrous weekends where he got cut, at the Deutsche Bank Championships and the Barclays.  The betting odds have him as the 3^rd highest favorite and, coincidentally, the 3^rd highest price on DraftKings.  I don’t know how to speculate on his held percentage but I’m sure he will rebound this weekend.

·         Bubba Watson ($10,200) – I feel like I love Bubba every weekend.  He projects really well on this course, he’s a bomber and he’s got a moderate price tag at $10,200.  There’s no reason not to have him this weekend.

·         Justin Thomas ($7,600) – Thomas is my value pick of the weekend.  He’s cheap, he projects to score the 12^th highest fantasy total over the weekend and he has the 2^nd best Par 5 birdie or better to just Bubba Watson.  

My Uncertainties

I won’t call them dislikes this weekend, I’m unsure about their performances as their overall projections don’t match up with their recent performance/course history. 

·         Jim Furyk ($10,000) – Jim Furyk holds the course record at Conway Farms at 59, which he set in 2013.  He doesn’t project as high as high price should dictate, however the confidence from the 2013 performance and his recent success should give you doubt from keeping him out of your lineups.  Be cautiously optimistic.

·         Henrik Stenson ($11,400) – Henrik’s price is substantial this weekend, the 4^th highest behind Day, McIlroy and Spieth.  Contrary to Spieth, he’s finished 2^nd in his last 2 tournaments and has the highest strokes gained on tour.  He’s on a hot streak and he might be well worth the price.  

Stay tuned for full projections and optimal lineup later today.  Good luck this weekend and ABI.