Friday, July 31, 2015

Quicken Loans #4 - % Drafted

Here is list of the field and the % Drafted on DrafKings, sorted from most to least drafted. DK should do this for us...


 Justin Rose 32.4%
 Jimmy Walker 29.6%
 Rickie Fowler 24.6%
 Justin Thomas 23.5%
 Jason Bohn 22.0%
 Ollie Schniederjans 18.8%
 Vaughn Taylor 18.6%
 Shawn Stefani 18.1%
 Will Wilcox 16.3%
 Johnson Wagner 16.2%
 Tony Finau 15.6%
 Pat Perez 15.6%
 Danny Lee 15.1%
 Stewart Cink 11.5%
 Harris English 10.4%
 Bill Haas 10.3%
 Ricky Barnes 9.7%
 Brendan Steele 9.1%
 Daniel Summerhays 9.0%
 Charles Howell III 8.4%
 Andy Sullivan 8.2%
 Chad Campbell 8.1%
 Russell Knox 8.1%
 Bryce Molder 8.0%
 David Lingmerth 7.9%
 Tiger Woods 7.9%
 Steven Bowditch 7.6%
 Nick Watney 7.4%
 Gary Woodland 7.1%
 John Senden 6.8%
 Daniel Berger 6.8%
 Hudson Swafford 6.7%
 Scott Pinckney 5.8%
 Adam Hadwin 5.7%
 Scott Langley 5.5%
 Brendon de Jonge 5.4%
 James Hahn 5.2%
 Chad Collins 4.9%
 Martin Laird 4.7%
 Cameron Tringale 4.7%
 Chesson Hadley 4.7%
 Erik Compton 4.6%
 Colt Knost 4.4%
 George McNeill 4.3%
 Andres Gonzales 4.2%
 Cameron Percy 3.8%
 Andres Romero 3.6%
 Jim Herman 3.6%
 Scott Brown 3.5%
 Sang-Moon Bae 3.5%
 Chris Stroud 3.5%
 Jhonattan Vegas 3.4%
 Patrick Rodgers 3.4%
 Arjun Atwal 3.2%
 Kevin Chappell 3.2%
 Retief Goosen 3.1%
 Alex Prugh 3.0%
 Camilo Villegas 3.0%
 Steve Wheatcroft 2.9%
 Michael Putnam 2.7%
 Brian Stuard 2.7%
 Blayne Barber 2.6%
 Jason Kokrak 2.5%
 William McGirt 2.3%
 K.J. Choi 2.3%
 Mark Wilson 2.2%
 Jon Curran 2.1%
 Fabian Gomez 2.1%
 Vijay Singh 2.1%
 John Peterson 2.0%
 Ernie Els 2.0%
 Sean O'Hair 1.9%
 Whee Kim 1.8%
 Carl Pettersson 1.6%
 Sam Saunders 1.5%
 Jonathan Byrd 1.5%
 Jonas Blixt 1.4%
 Ryo Ishikawa 1.4%
 Nicholas Thompson 1.3%
 Angel Cabrera 1.3%
 Greg Owen 1.3%
 Bo Van Pelt 1.2%
 Troy Merritt 1.1%
 Seung-yul Noh 1.1%
 Robert Garrigus 1.1%
 Justin Leonard 1.0%
 Mark Hubbard 1.0%
 Aaron Baddeley 0.9%
 John Huh 0.9%
 Billy Hurley III 0.9%
 Carlos Ortiz 0.8%
 Jeff Overton 0.8%
 Stephen Gallacher 0.8%
 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 0.6%
 Ben Crane 0.6%
 Ken Duke 0.6%
 Brian Davis 0.6%
 Luke Guthrie 0.6%
 Jason Gore 0.5%
 Zac Blair 0.5%
 Spencer Levin 0.5%
 J.J. Henry 0.5%
 Robert Allenby 0.4%
 Nick Taylor 0.4%
 Daniel Chopra 0.4%
 Kyle Reifers 0.4%
 Charlie Beljan 0.4%
 John Merrick 0.3%
 Martin Flores 0.3%
 Michael Thompson 0.3%
 Max Homa 0.3%
 Tim Clark 0.2%
 Sung Joon Park 0.2%
 Russell Henley 0.2%
 Andrew Svoboda 0.2%
 Tim Wilkinson 0.1%
 Jonathan Randolph 0.1%
 Brendon Todd 0.1%
 Brice Garnett 0.1%
 Matt Jones 0.1%
 Gunn Yang 0.1%
 Alex Cejka 0.0%
 Davis Love III 0.0%
 Matt Every 0.0%
 Tom Gillis 0.0%
 Richard Sterne 0.0%

























































































































































































































































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Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Quicken Loans #3: Full Projection Set


Please note that we used the Bodog.EU odds for projecting finishing place and we assumed that all players shoot four rounds (we know that's not correct but you can adjust appropriately)
NameSalaryTotal Projected Score
Justin Rose1220098.38435545
Rickie Fowler1170084.02637296
Jimmy Walker1100086.83872993
Justin Thomas1000088.01414068
Tony Finau980082.19769794
Bill Haas920072.84347581
Brendan Steele940079.91616446
Danny Lee910074.14134741
Gary Woodland900070.3132665
Russell Knox850070.11659146
Jason Bohn810074.61762448
Will Wilcox890074.59537862
Shawn Stefani880074.10315156
Harris English830070.89765144
Daniel Summerhays860068.45957411
David Lingmerth780068.00846581
John Senden800066.00937823
Steven Bowditch840070.71213285
Pat Perez840070.27810639
Johnson Wagner870067.93038833
Andres Romero770062.34563557
Patrick Rodgers800071.06780036
Kevin Chappell820066.79074042
George McNeill760066.59215878
Carl Pettersson740066.14471607
Chad Campbell740063.2218879
Daniel Berger780069.69176722
Stewart Cink780066.09699503
Brendon de Jonge770065.91885246
Chris Stroud780064.95536684
Bryce Molder690064.91586265
James Hahn790064.82053319
Adam Hadwin750064.32442312
William McGirt770063.15443393
Scott Langley760061.80481576
Sean O'Hair730066.7717901
Scott Brown640065.71796041
Martin Laird730065.51065204
Scott Pinckney720065.14149438
Seung-Yul Noh770065.09260661
Nick Watney730064.61019224
Camilo Villegas650063.33088846
Russell Henley790066.64901123
Steve Wheatcroft630066.52407962
Hudson Swafford590066.43584127
Matt Jones750066.38458155
Jason Kokrak650065.76563024
Carlos Ortiz600064.49111244
Blayne Barber580063.99967936
Chesson Hadley610063.735965
Aaron Baddeley660063.73219661
Colt Knost620063.71199076
Andres Gonzales570063.67352214
Chad Collins660063.24279513
John Peterson620062.68931973
Erik Compton700062.60156599
Nick Taylor600062.53383769
Jeff Overton590062.39209582
Ryo Ishikawa610062.38725145
Brendon Todd780062.37732583
Cameron Percy640062.35611039
Charles Howell III650062.22345147
Alex Cejka620062.18947244
Sangmoon Bae650062.17661939
Jason Gore660061.92965776
Jhonattan Vegas640061.80465261
Fabian Gomez540061.73809066
Martin Flores630061.56150102
Whee Kim550061.38306443
Michael Thompson660061.35127785
John Huh620061.28125277
Jim Herman590061.12056756
Zac Blair600061.0444981
Vijay Singh620061.03226263
Michael Putnam730061.00529315
Jonathan Byrd610060.82941178
Charlie Beljan620060.81533311
John Merrick550060.81343434
Nicholas Thompson520060.75067169
Alex Prugh590060.69814131
Ken Duke640060.53221299
Mark Hubbard530060.41613681
Luke Guthrie630060.41261784
Mark Wilson690060.02246682
Jonas Blixt640059.83283451
J.J. Henry610059.82180394
Sam Saunders660059.78714018
Angel Cabrera670059.74030259
Greg Owen700059.72550329
Cameron Tringale710059.59521305
Robert Garrigus640059.43067032
Jonathan Randolph540059.41890288
Jon Curran640059.3761457
Troy Merritt530059.26980443
Bo Van Pelt670058.85708557
Brian Stuard680058.80832862
Ernie Els610058.77213228
Retief Goosen740058.7498127
Max Homa540058.72807469
Tom Gillis570058.66103859
K.J. Choi590058.51900604
Ricky Barnes610058.28683714
Brice Garnett580057.95651848
Gonzalo Fdez-Castano560057.36742852
Andrew Svoboda600057.3418604
Spencer Levin600057.12729281
Billy Hurley III620056.81174296
Brian Davis570056.75960839
Matt Every610056.23132021
Ben Crane580055.93259344
Tim Wilkinson580055.12854241
Davis Love III630054.85878228
Robert Allenby530053.71959584
Justin Leonard560053.26111669
Richard Sterne580051.41535512
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Quicken Loans #2: Our Picks and Discussion




Using the methodology discussed in our first post, I crunched some numbers for the Quicken Loans National this weekend.

The salaries for this article are those quoted on DraftKings. If you haven’t already – sign up here.
 
My Favorites

  • Justin Rose ($12,200 on DraftKings) – Rose is projected to win this tournament by Vegas and should perform really well.  If you can afford him in your lineups, he’s a must-pick.
  • Justin Thomas ($10,000) – Thomas has a very high eagle rate on par 5s (4.72%) which shouldn’t contribute too much on this course.  However, it does show how good he is on longer distance holes.  Thomas is 22nd on the tour in Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G). For a detailed discussion of Strokes Gained, see our previous article. He’s not cheap this weekend but he’s worth it.
  • Brenden Steele ($9,400) – Brendan is another golfer who performs well on longer courses.  He ranks 16th on the tour in SG:T2G.  A slightly cheaper option than Thomas but both will contribute to your team this weekend.
  • Jason Bohn ($8,100) – Bohn is a cheaper option than the two golfers above.  He’s tied for 39th on the tour for SG:T2G and he’s ranked 5th overall in Birdie to Bogey Ratio.  He appears to be a good value mid-priced golfer for your lineups.

My Dislikes

  • Rickie Fowler ($11,700) – Fowler is the second highest priced golfer in this tournament behind Justin Rose.  However, he projects out to fall lower than both Jimmy Walker and Justin Thomas.  Rickie is ranked 53rd for SG:T2G and he’s pretty average on Par 4 holes.  He’s over-priced this weekend.
  • Bill Haas ($9,200) - Haas ranks 45th on the tour for SG:T2G and he’s projected to score below some of his cheaper options.  There are better options this weekend.

My Lineup
I entered the DraftKings $3 PGA tournament this weekend and my lineup is the following:

  • Justin Thomas
  • Jason Bohn
  • Tony Finau
  • Brendan Steele
  • Hudson Swafford
  • Steve Wheatcroft


Good Luck this weekend and ABI,

Rob
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